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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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