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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd