A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
